Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
