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A mere two months ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery berated him for missing a through-ball. During that period, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or the source for the side's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. As the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?

That’s a rather hard question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.

As per the data, on just two occasions has the side registered an xG notably superior than the other team. For a team who have strung together 10 in a row, Villa look curiously susceptible – but currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach looks like to exchange chances with rivals and wait for Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.

The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists another reality whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.

• The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he was during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.

The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.