A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
